Lucid posts weak US vehicle registration data in July
Despite the reassuring comments about customer demand I expressed Lucid Group (NASDAQ: LCID) CEO Throughout most of 2023, hard data still does not support such rhetoric. The most recent example of this is US vehicle registration data compiled by Automotive News.
In July, US customers registered just 348 Lucid Air models, down 40% from the monthly average of 574 registrations during the first half of 2023. While the July data of course represents only a third of the third quarter of 2023, The decline in registrations suggests that Lucid Air may struggle to deliver as many vehicles in the third quarter of 2023 as it did in the disappointing first two quarters of 2023. After all, the average monthly U.S. registrations of 574 translated into The first six of this year averaged monthly deliveries of 468 units.
Registration, production and delivery data for Lucid and Rivian
|July 2023||First half of 2023 monthly average||1H 2023|
|New electric vehicle registrations||348||574||3,441|
|Vehicles delivered to customers||468||2,810|
|New electric vehicle registrations||2750||2,602||15,609|
|Vehicles delivered to customers||3,431||20,586|
Tesla’s aggressive price cutting policy for 2023 appears to have greatly impacted Lucid sales, for example, Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) The Model S sedan, which has an estimated driving range of 405 miles and a base price of about $75,000, is about $7,400 less expensive than the Lucid Air’s sticker price of $82,400. The Lucid Air has a range of 410 miles.
is reading: Tesla owners in China are demanding compensation for the significant price drop in the Model S and
in contrast, Rivian Automotive Company (NASDAQ: RIVN), another electric vehicle startup with a significant market cap, is seeing a rise in vehicle registrations. In July, US customers registered a total of 2,750 R1T electric pickup trucks and R1S electric SUVs, up 6% from the monthly average of 2,602 during the first half of 2023.
The R1T and R1S carry base prices of around $75,000 and $78,000, respectively. The Rivian pickup has a range of about 270 miles, and the SUV can travel about 300 miles on a full charge.
Lucid burned $904 million of cash in the second quarter of 2023 (known as operating cash flow less Capital expenditures). Over the twelve months ending June 30, 2023, total cash destruction exceeded $3.7 billion. Lucid expects to produce roughly the same number of vehicles in the second half of 2023 as it did in the first half of 2023, and July registration data only suggests it could exceed that estimate. Thus, there are few reasons to believe that Lucid’s quarterly cash burn rate will deviate significantly from the pace of $0.9 billion – $1.0 billion in Q3 2023 – and in Q4 2023.
Despite its single-digit stock price, Lucid remains a very expensive stock. Factoring in the 2.282 billion shares outstanding and $3.15 billion of net cash on its balance sheet, Lucid’s enterprise value (EV) is approximately $10.4 billion. The company’s revenue for the twelve months ending June 30, 2023 totaled just over $750 million, meaning the stock is trading at EV to revenue Multipliers are about 14x.
In other words, Lucid’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). Loss Over the past 12 months more than $2.5 billion, and increasing quarterly losses: $710 million in Q2 2023; $644 million in the first quarter of 2023; $624 million in Q4 2022; and $553 million in Q3 2022. Given this troubling trend, it’s hard to justify investors allocating more than $10 billion worth of EVs to Lucid.
Lucid Group, Inc. is traded. It was last at $5.92 on the Nasdaq.
Information for this story was found via Edgar and the sources and companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author does not hold any licenses.